jueves, 4 de febrero de 2010

Acerca del Teorema Fundamental del Poker


Hola de nuevo, casi un año después vuelvo y actualizo este blog, oficialmente no es ninguna reapertura del mismo que por falta de tiempo y motivación hacia la redacción no había vuelto a escribir acá. Este año empezaré de nuevo a escribir esporádicamente pero lo haré para la web www.8outs.com para la cual estoy trabajando actualmente, así que todos los artículos sobre conceptos, estrategias y teoría del juego aparecerán allí publicados.

Antes de empezar con el pequeño artículo de hoy quiero felicitar al grupo cardsflip por el lanzamiento de su marca de ropa hace tan sólo unos pocos días, suerte con el proyecto !!. Sobre mí sólo tengo que decir que el año pasado incursioné en NL400 y este año tocará jugar muy juicioso y a seguir aprendiendo ya que pienso cambiar de apartamento a fin de año. Saludos al que aún por "accidente" visite este blog XD.

Acerca del Teorema Fundamental del Poker

El teorema fundamental del Poker escrito por David Sklansky en su grandioso libro “The Theory of Poker” estable lo siguiente:

"Cada vez que juegas una mano de forma diferente a la forma en que la hubieras jugado si pudieras ver las cartas de tu oponente, él gana. Y cada vez que tu juegas tu mano de la forma que la hubieras jugado conociendo sus cartas, él pierde."

Esta afirmación tiene todo el sentido del mundo y creo que es imposible que alguien pueda perder dinero conociendo las cartas de su rival. Si aún lo dudas no es sino que consultes como algunos usuarios con complicidad de la sala de Poker han logrado llenar sus bolsillos con las llamadas cuentas de Superusuario.

Aunque estoy de acuerdo con la idea general, el hecho de llamarle Teorema, desde el punto de vista matemático, es un poco inapropiado. Esto parte de que como el Poker se juega contra personas quienes dependiendo de factores externos pueden tomar decisiones racionales o no, existirá un factor de “azar” que conlleva a que incluso conociendo las cartas de tu rival en ciertas manos y situaciones específicas no puedas jugar perfecto y por ende no puedas ganar dinero con total certeza.

Veamos un ejemplo:

Supongamos que en la mitad de un torneo de 80 jugadores tienes T 9 y las cartas comunes son 7 2 8 5. Hay 2700 fichas en el pozo, te quedan 2050 y tu rival te cubre con 9600. Justo antes del river accidentalmente logras ver las cartas de tu oponente y sabes que tiene AK. El river es un 2, tu rival pasa, ahora es tu turno ¿Qué haces?

Descubriste que tu rival estaba buscando un proyecto a color que no se completó por lo que en teoría un bluff debería funcionar muy bien. Sin embargo el problema radica es que estas arriesgando tu participación en el torneo, aparte de que debes hacer retirar a un oponente con un buen número de fichas que sólo tiene que pagar una apuesta del 75% del pozo, y para completar, el river no es una carta que intimide a tu oponente, porque si él cree que puedes tener un proyecto fallido a color o escalera (que era exactamente lo que tenías) pueda pagarte porque pensará que su As alto es suficiente.


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